İnstitute of Graduate Studies - lisansustu@gelisim.edu.tr

International Trade And Logistics (Master) (Non Thesis)








  The book chapter prepared by Assist. Prof. Ali Çelik and Research Assistant Nuran Akdağ was published by Gazi Bookstore


From the Department of International Trade and Logistics, Assist. Prof. Ali Çelik and Res. Assist. Nuran Akdağ's book chapter titled "Structural Fracture Analysis of Selected Variables Affecting the Exchange Rate in Turkey after the 2008 Crisis" was published in the book titled Empirical Results of Economic, Financial and Financial Applications Volume 2 - Finance and Finance Applications by Gazi Kitabevi in April.


In their study, Çelik and Akdağ analyze the possible effects of short-term external debt stock, interest rate, total reserves and manufacturing industry capacity utilization rate on the exchange rate using monthly data between 2008:01 and 2020:11 by using structural break test methods. According to the results of Lee and Strazicich (2003)'s two-break unit root test, the series are stationary after first differences are taken. In line with this result, Maki (2012) structural break co-integration analysis was conducted. Maki (2012) test reveals that the series are cointegrated in the long run. As a general conclusion, it is argued that risk and uncertainty prevail as a natural consequence of a highly fragile economic structure that is dependent on short-term capital movements. It is quite obvious that macroeconomic indicators, which constitute the main axis of the country's economic dynamics, may follow a fluctuating course in a functioning dominated by these conditions. The exchange rate indicator is also directly affected by this structure.
 
It is known that exchange rate volatility is an important element of the competitiveness of economies and has a central function in open economies, especially in countries with a high dependency ratio of exports on imports. One of the primary tasks of the economic management is to increase the efficiency of institutions and to take steps to establish a macroeconomic environment that will ensure economic stability."  Those who want to review the book can access detailed information here.